220,000 tonne asteroid could hit Earth in 2032, 1 in 100 chance
Astronomers believe that an asteroid weighing 220 million kilograms will pass by Earth in 2032. The odds of it hitting us are 1 in 100.
February 05, 2025 07:16
An explosion 500 times bigger than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima
On Christmas Day, a NASA-operated robotic telescope was observing the night sky in Chile when it spotted an object that triggered the space agency's final asteroid warning system.
This prompted scientists to investigate. Two days later, they found that whatever it was, it was moving away from our home world, but its trajectory could bring it back in our direction.
If it were to hit our planet, it would be like the explosion of an eight-megaton TNT bomb, about 500 times bigger than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
In the video below, captured by the European Telescope in Chile, look out for the orbiting dot, because that's the asteroid. Its name is 2024 YR4.
It will be visible again in 2028.
"Astronomers have now measured the object's orbit, and further observations will refine it to give us a more accurate picture of its potential danger. The measurements suggest it may be a rocky asteroid," said Heidi Hammel, chief science officer at the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy.
So far, the space rock is known to have a diameter of 40 to 90 metres and is moving away from Earth at a speed of 17.32 km/s.
The asteroid will remain on our planet until April before disappearing around the Sun, only to reappear in 2028.
Rated 3 out of 10 on the hazard score
An asteroid's orbit around the Sun is elongated. It will be very important as 2024 YR4 is now the highest category Near Earth Object (NEO) on the Turin Impact Hazard Scale.
On this scale, a 1 is non-threatening, and a score of 10 means the end of life on Earth as we know it.
"2024 YR4 is rated 3, making it the most dangerous NEO at the moment.
In practice, there is a 1.3% chance that 2024 YR4 will hit Earth.
The blast radius would be about 50 km.
Given the asteroid's proportions, it would leave a footprint if it crashed into the continent. Or, if it hits the ocean, it will cause tsunamis. But it will not destroy the Earth.
According to the International Asteroid Alert Network, the blast radius of 2024 YR4 is likely to be around 50 km.
Currently, all efforts are focused on tracking this NEO.
